The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16 (ACTUAL, Federal Reserve). The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, and the minutes of the September meeting were already released on October 7. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.22% on October 8, the latest value in FRED (ACTUAL).
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,811.54, up 0.59% on the day and 1.15% above the prior Friday's close of 7,722.72 (ACTUAL, FRED). Last week's closing high was 7,818.93 on Tuesday. Rate-hike probabilities from third-party tools are not cited here because they could not be verified against a primary source.
Monday is Columbus Day. The NYSE is open, SIFMA lists the day as a U.S. bond-market holiday and the BLS publishes nothing. The week's data starts Wednesday with September CPI and real earnings at 08:30 ET. August CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, core CPI rose 0.3% and 2.4%, and real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% (ACTUAL, BLS). Thursday brings PPI and advance retail sales for September, and Friday brings import and export prices and industrial production. Industrial production was unchanged in August and capacity utilization stood at 76.3% (ACTUAL, Federal Reserve).
JPMorgan guides for the full year, not for single quarters, so the second-quarter actuals cannot be scored against a quarterly target. After the second quarter management lifted its full-year expectations to about $105.5B for net interest income and about $107.5B for adjusted expense (MGMT EXPECTATION, both market dependent). Second-quarter GAAP net income of $21.2B included significant items; excluding them it was $16.9B (non-GAAP). Revenue and net interest income above are on JPMorgan's managed basis (non-GAAP); reported revenue was $57.3B. The open question for Tuesday is whether quarterly net interest income and expense stay on track for the raised full-year figures.
TSMC's second-quarter results are already in and checked against guidance. Revenue of $40.20B sat at the top of the $39.0–40.2B range, gross margin of 67.7% was 0.2 points above the high end of 65.5%–67.5%, and operating margin of 60.3% was 1.8 points above the high end of 56.5%–58.5% (differences calculated). What is open is the third quarter: guidance of $44.6–45.8B in revenue, but a gross margin of 65% to 67%, which is below the 67.7% second-quarter actual. The guidance assumes 1 US dollar to 32 NT dollars.
The target range is 3.75–4.00% since the September 16 decision (ACTUAL). The Beige Book follows Wednesday at 14:00 ET, and the next FOMC meeting is October 27–28.
August CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, with core at +0.3% and +2.4% (ACTUAL, BLS). September CPI arrives Wednesday at 08:30 ET.
August final-demand PPI rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year (ACTUAL, BLS). The September report is due Thursday at 08:30 ET.
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup report Tuesday, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. JPMorgan's raised full-year net interest income expectation of about $105.5B is the reference point (MGMT EXPECTATION).
The August advance estimate of September 16 showed retail sales up 1.2% on the month (ACTUAL, Census). Census published revised series on September 28; the revised levels put August about 1.1% above July (calculated from FRED). The preliminary October University of Michigan sentiment index was 46.3, down from 48.1 in September (ACTUAL, UMich).
TSMC guided September-quarter revenue to $44.6–45.8B against a June-quarter actual of $40.20B (GUIDANCE vs ACTUAL). The call starts at 02:00 ET Thursday.
| Ticker | Company | When (ET) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | Tue AM | Before the open. Release ~07:00 ET. Call 08:30 ET. See spotlight. |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | Tue AM | Before the open. Release ~06:45 ET. Call 08:30 ET. Pharma and medtech. |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | Tue AM | Before the open. Release ~07:00 ET. Call 10:00 ET. |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | Tue AM | Before the open. Release ~07:30 ET. Call 09:30 ET. Per firm's 2026 schedule. |
| C | Citigroup | Tue AM | Before the open. Release ~08:00 ET. Call 11:00 ET. |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group | Tue AM | Before the open. Call 08:00 ET. Managed care. |
| BAC | Bank of America | Wed AM | Before the open. Release ~06:45 ET. Call 08:30 ET. |
| BLK | BlackRock | Wed AM | Before the open. Call 07:30 ET. Asset manager. |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | Wed AM | Before the open. Release ~07:30 ET. Call 09:30 ET. |
| PGR | Progressive | Wed AM | Before the open. September results; release time not stated. Property and casualty insurer. |
| TSM | TSMC | Thu AM | Call 02:00 ET (14:00 Taiwan); release time not stated. Semiconductor foundry. See spotlight. |